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WASHINGTON (AP) — Factory orders are picking up and the economy may soon follow.A rise in demand for long-lasting manufactured goods in May suggests the parts shortage stemming from the Japan crises is fading. It would also support the view offered by many economists, who have suggested that the economic slowdown is temporary and that growth will strengthen this summer after six dismal months.
Still, the projected growth won’t be enough to make a noticeable dent in the unemployment rate, which was 9.1 percent last month.
The economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the first three months of the year, according to the Commerce Department’s third and final estimate. Economists don’t expect much better growth in the current April-June quarter, which ends next week. An Associated Press survey of 38 top economists predicts that rate will be about 2.3 percent.
Economists have largely blamed the sluggish stretch on high gas prices, which have come down since peaking in early May. They have also cited the impact of the March 11th earthquake and tsunami in Japan, which has led to supply disruptions that have hampered U.S. manufacturers.
Factory production is starting to rev back up. Durable goods orders rose 1.9 percent, the Commerce Department said. Companies stepped up requests for machinery, computers and cars, and a key category that measures future business investment rose.
It was a solid turnaround after orders fell 2.7 percent in April, at the height of the parts shortage. A durable good is a product that is designed to last at least three years.
The report also showed a modest increase in business stockpiles. Companies typically build up their supplies when they think consumers will step up their purchases.
But David Wyss, former chief economist at Standard & Poor’s and now a visiting fellow at Brown University, said many businesses were caught with low stock levels when the crisis in Japan disrupted supply chains.
“The supply chain problems have convinced a lot of companies that just-in-time inventory management has a problem because the inventories don’t always show up just in time,” Wyss said. “I believe some companies will switch to a just-in-case approach where they hold larger stockpiles.”
Manufacturing is closely watched because it has the potential to fuel hiring and boost growth.
President Barack Obama on Friday made that point in Pittsburgh Friday, while calling for a “renaissance in American manufacturing” that would replace shuttered steel mills with plants producing robotics, nanotechnology and other high-tech advances. The president proposed a joint effort by industry, universities and the federal government to help reposition the United States as a leader in cutting-edge manufacturing.
“That’s how we’re going to strengthen existing industries, that’s how we’re going spark new ones,” Obama said at Carnegie Mellon’s National Robotics Engineering Center. “That’s how we’re going to create jobs, grow the middle class and secure our economic leadership.”
Growth must be stronger to significantly lower the unemployment rate, which was 9.1 percent last month. The economy would need to grow 5 percent for a whole year to significantly bring down the unemployment rate. Economic growth of just 3 percent a year would hold the unemployment steady and keep up with population growth.
Employers added only 54,000 net new jobs in May, much slower than the average gain of 220,000 per month in the previous three months. The expectations for June are slightly better.
falling fast. In the past 7 weeks, the average U.S. retail prices has dropped 38 cents to .60 per gallon. Another 25-cent drop is expected by mid-July.
When prices approached in early May, drivers were worried that gasoline was a possibility this summer. But since then, oil prices have collapsed, the result of slowing economic growth in developed countries, weaker demand for oil and gas and this week’s decision by the U.S. and other countries to release 60 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Economists say falling prices will benefit consumers by leaving money in their wallets, and making them feel freer to spend on travel, shopping and dining.
Ron Meyers, 51, a handyman from Little Rock, Ark., was doubtful that he could afford the drive to visit family in Pennsylvania. Now, thanks to cheaper gas, the trip is on. And he plans on seeing a few more summer movies, too.
“You can go out and have a good time, and have a little money left in your pocket,” he said.
Economists say that while, for instance, a 25-cent-per-gallon drop only saves the typical driver .50 per month, it has a huge effect both on the economy as a whole and on the psychology of consumers.
Naveen Agarwal, who helps small businesses and car companies manage fuel costs as CEO of Pricelock, in Redwood City, Calif, said he expects drivers will travel farther distances this summer than originally planned. And they’ll spend as they go.
“They’ll be a little bit more liberal about their consumption instead of just having a barbeque in their back yard,” Agarwal said.
Instead of thinking of ways to cut back, the Dykstra family of Orange City, Iowa, will now be able to spend a little more on meals and souvenirs when it visits Chicago.
“We actually budgeted for a gallon,” Mark Dykstra, 46, a supermarket assistant manager who will be travelling with his three teenage children, said earlier this week.
For the first five months of the year, gasoline prices went in one direction: up. Growing economies, especially in Asia, burned more gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa prevented oil from reaching the market and scared oil traders into bidding prices higher.
Oil peaked at 4 per barrel in April. It’s now at per barrel after a 2 percent drop this week.
Energy economists and Wall Street investment bankers caution that oil is likely to rise above 0 again next year, particularly if oil producers struggle to meet rising global demand. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or further unrest in the Middle East could also boost prices.
Agarwal expects gasoline prices will return to a range of .50 to .75 per gallon by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs and other investment banks predict oil will rebound next year to levels that would push gasoline above for the first time since 2008.
“If you’re asking whether gasoline could be .50 or higher forever, the answer is yes,” said oil analyst Andrew Lipow. “People will have to make some adjustments.”
Adzi Vokhiwa, 22, of Acworth, Ga., is relieved
by the price drop, but skeptical. “It almost doesn’t matter because I know (prices) are going to go back up again,” she said.
She commutes 60 miles a day from her home in Acworth, Ga. to her job in downtown Atlanta. Twice a week she puts worth of gasoline into her Kia Soul, and has asked her boss to change her schedule so she can carpool a couple of days a week.
High gasoline prices have made it tougher for Vokhiwa to save for graduate school. But for now, at least, she says she’ll have a little more money to put towards that goal.
Randy Herring, 46, of Montpelier, Vt. had been borrowing his wife’s Subaru Legacy instead of driving his Chevy Tahoe SUV and he had even contemplated pulling out his bicycle. Now he’s employing a strategy to capitalize on the falling prices. He’s started to give the Tahoe the equivalent of a sip of gasoline every so often so he doesn’t miss out on the coming savings.
“Whatever I need for the week, and that’s it,” Herring said.
Associated Press Writers Michael Rubinkam in Allentown, Penn. and Barbara Rodriguez in Chicago contributed to this story.